Oscars Predictions 2025

It’s that time of year again, when Hollywood’s elite dress up in their fanciest fineries for a night of handing each other collectible C3PO figurines. Yes, the Oscars are this weekend, and as is tradition, I’m setting out who I think will be walking away with every single prize. I’ll also be staying up to watch the ceremony and see how I did, so if you’re watching it too please feel free to write to me on BlueSky at @sdedwards89.bsky.social and let me know how wrong I was.

The format here is the same as always – I’ll start by listing the nominees, and marking each one that I’ve seen with a *. I’ll then predict a winner and throw in a little blurb to show my working. So without further ado, I’ll jump straight in with the big one…

Best Picture

• *Anora
• *The Brutalist
• *A Complete Unknown
• *Conclave
• *Dune: Part Two
• *Emilia Pérez
• *I’m Still Here
• Nickel Boys
• *The Substance
• *Wicked

Prediction: Anora

The biggest prize in cinema is a really tough one to call this year. I would love for it to go to Anora, which was probably the film I enjoyed the most on this list, and I think that has a good chance – it has a lot of love and support (having won the Critics Choice Award), and although a comedy about a sex worker might not seem like prime Oscar material on the face of it, in recent years Best Picture has increasingly gone to the less traditional choices (see also Everything Everywhere All At Once and Parasite). But The Substance and Wicked have a similarly off-beat appeal, and that could split that the Quirky Vote. 

Emilia Pérez arguably walks the line between left-field (a musical about a drug lord…) and traditional (…who overcomes diversity to reform and make amends for their crimes), and its slew of nominations (the most of any film this year) is testament to its popularity, as is its Golden Globe win for Best Musical or Comedy. But there has been too much controversy around its star and filming for it to win Best Picture, and that will be a running theme in this blog. 

Conclave won the BAFTA, but for some reason (maybe Ralph Fiennes, the European setting, or the relatively sedate pacing) I feel like that would appeal more to the British Academy than the American one. That said, it also won the top award at the SAGs. It’s definitely in with a chance, I’m just not sure it’s going to get the Oscar. I’m Still Here and Nickel Boys haven’t made enough waves at the box office, and Dune’s waves were too big – it’s rare for sci fi blockbusters to win in this category, plus Part 2 has generally been less well received than Part 1 was. 

That leaves A Complete Unknown and The Brutalist and, of the two, Brutalist feels like it has the most momentum. Its main criticism has been its length, but that’s unlikely to have turned off the hardened film-watchers of the Academy. And in every other respect, it’s an incredible film. The acting, cinematography, music and direction are all pretty faultless. And its subject matter – the struggles of an immigrant to be taken seriously in America despite his genius and the value he can bring to society – is great Oscar bait at any time, but even more so at the moment when the largely left wing film industry will want to protest Trump’s mass deportations. I loved A Complete Unknown, but The Brutalist feels so much weightier and more important. And its Best (Drama) Film wins at both the BAFTAs and the Golden Globes can’t have hurt its chances.

So logically, I should really go with The Brutalist. And yet, my heart and my gut are telling me that Anora might pull off a bit of an upset.

Best Actor

• *Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
• *Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
• Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
• *Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
• *Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Prediction: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

Until recently I was fairly confident with this one – Brody won the BAFTA, the Critics Choice Award and the (Drama) Golden Globe, and while Sebastian Stan won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy, it was for A Different Man, which he’s not nominated for here (as an aside – what a great year for the Winter Soldier). But the Academy voters who decide the winners in each category are mostly people who work in that field (ie actors in this case) so the specialist award ceremonies are often a better indicator of how these will go, and the SAG award went to Timothée Chalamet. Those two have to be the top contenders, with perhaps an outside chance for Ralph Fiennes too. Sing Sing and The Apprentice have a few nominations each this year, but they don’t have the Best Picture nod which helps keep them in the conversation. It could go either way – Chalamet perfectly captured Bob Dylan’s music and mannerisms in a challenging role that required him to play instruments and sing in character as well as acting the part. But for me, Brody just has the edge. It’s arguably a career-best performance (in a career that already includes one Oscar win for The Pianist) in an emotional role that he played with more subtlety and more passion than Chalamet managed, although that may have been more Bob Dylan’s fault than Chalamet’s. I also think this is probably going to remain Brody’s career highlight, whereas Chalamet still has a fair few roles left in him and will no doubt be in this position again.

Best Actress

• *Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)
• *Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez)
• *Mikey Madison (Anora)
• *Demi Moore (The Substance)
• *Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Prediction: Demi Moore (The Substance)

This is a tougher call than Best Actor. I think Cynthia Erivo thoroughly deserves to be on this list, but Wicked doesn’t seem to have quite the momentum that everyone thought it would and she hasn’t managed to get a look-in on any of the other big awards. Karla Sofía Gascón has shot herself in the foot by making controversial remarks, both in the X archives and more recently once her historic tweets were brought to light (including some that broke Academy rules by singling out fellow nominee Fernanda Torres). But the others are all in with a solid chance. Mikey Madison won the BAFTA, Fernanda Torres won the (Drama) Golden Globe, and Demi Moore won the (Comedy) Golden Globe, the Critics Choice Award and the SAG award. I would be thrilled for Madison or Torres to win this as they were both incredible in their respective films, but I think I’m backing Demi Moore. As previously mentioned, the SAG awards are generally the best indicator for the acting categories, and her win there and at the Globes has to place her in the lead. Her performance in The Substance is incredibly committed and has been widely heralded as a huge comeback.

Best Supporting Actor

• *Yura Borisov (Anora)
• *Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
• *Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
• *Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
• *Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

Prediction: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

When the nominations were announced, many reporters pitched Supporting Actor as a battle of the Roy brothers, with Jeremy Strong and Kieran Culkin both in contention. But it very quickly became apparent that this was a one-horse race, and poor old Kendall never stood a chance. Kieran Culkin has swept the awards running up to this point, winning the BAFTA, the Globe, the Critics Choice and the SAG award, and there is no doubt that he will continue that streak here. His performance in A Real Pain was captivating – he personified the film’s title magnificently, with some incredibly cringeworthy moments, but there was always a sense of pain and sadness behind his eyes that you couldn’t help but feel for. For what it’s worth, everyone else on the list deserves their nominations, and I’m particularly pleased to see Borisov on there who I’d never come across before Anora, but at this point I think even they are practising their gracious defeat face ready for when Culkin’s name gets read out.

Best Supporting Actress

• *Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)
• *Ariana Grande (Wicked)
• *Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)
• *Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)
• *Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Prediction: Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

Similarly to Supporting Actor, this feels like pretty much a dead cert at this point. Saldaña (who is inexplicably in the Supporting Actress category despite having considerably more screentime in Emilia Pérez than lead Actress nomination Karla Sofía Gascón) has already won the BAFTA, Golden Globe, Critics Choice and SAG awards and is widely expected to do the same here. She is central to many of the film’s big musical numbers, including one of its two nominees for Best Song, and she manages to get a lot of emotion into the role in among the singing too. I don’t think Emilia Pérez’s ridiculous number of nominations will translate into a similar number of wins, but this feels like a good way to reward the film’s success without adding to the controversy around it. Again, the other nominees are worthy contenders. Rossellini made a huge impact with very little screentime, Barbaro had me leaving the film more interested in her character Joan Baez’s music than I was in Bob Dylan’s, and Grande has proven that her casting was much more than just a celebrity name to draw in audiences. I won’t be too upset if there’s some big upset here. But it would be a big upset – this is almost certainly going to Saldaña.

Best Director

• *Sean Baker (Anora)
• *Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
• *James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
• *Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
• *Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

Prediction: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

This is another one where the BAFTAs and Globes have gone one way and the specialist award – in this case the Directors Guild of America awards – have gone another. The former two gave this to Brady Corbet, while the DGA award went to Sean Baker for Anora. I really, really loved Anora and I wouldn’t be at all upset if this goes to Baker too, but I suspect Corbet will have the edge. The Brutalist is an incredible filmmaking achievement – every shot is beautiful, and Corbet drew some fantastic performances from all his cast. It’s entirely possible this could go to James Mangold as well, which would be a very worthy win – he’s probably the most established name on this list and although he’s had some Oscar nods before, this is his first nomination in this category. I don’t think Audiard is realistically in with a shot – there is too much controversy around Emilia Pérez and some of it falls in his lap, such as the decision to film the whole thing in France despite it being set in Mexico, which the Mexican audiences protested by avoiding it entirely. Fargeat would deserve it – The Substance is slick and stylish, with some bravely visceral choices – but the voters in the other awards seem to have favoured Corbet and Baker (except the Critics Choice Awards, which gave it to John M Chu for Wicked).

Best Adapted Screenplay

• *A Complete Unknown
• *Conclave
• *Emilia Pérez
• Nickel Boys
• Sing Sing

Prediction: Conclave

I’ve already skipped over Conclave in a few other categories where it would be a very worthy winner, but I think this category is its best chance of going home with an award. It is, for want of a better word, a very talky film – there is of course more to a screenplay than just the dialogue, but nevertheless this award often goes to films that are very dialogue-heavy. And given that most of its characters are elderly clerics who aren’t exactly running around like James Bond, all of the film’s tension and drama is in the dialogue. The fact that it’s a serious contender for Best Film as a result of that script and the roles that it gifts to its cast deserves to be recognised here. It’s already won the BAFTA, the Critics Choice Award and the Golden Globe, although interestingly it wasn’t even nominated for the Writers Guild of America award – that went to Nickel Boys. But I didn’t see Nickel Boys so I can’t really comment on that, except to point out that Emilia Pérez and Sing Sing weren’t nominated either, which would suggest that the WGA aren’t voting on the same wavelength as the Academy. Maybe Nickel Boys will surprise me, and again this could very deservedly go to A Complete Unknown, but I think Conclave is the safest bet.

Best Original Screenplay

• *Anora
• *The Brutalist
• *A Real Pain
• *September 5
• *The Substance

Prediction: A Real Pain

This is a tricky one – the WGA went for Anora but the BAFTA went to A Real Pain (the Globes just have one Screenplay award, which as previously mentioned went to Conclave). I wouldn’t discount The Brutalist in any of the fields it’s nominated in this year, and September 5 had an incredible screenplay (although its lack of nominations in any other categories makes it the underdog here). The Substance also had a great screenplay and won the Critics Choice Award, but it’s less dialogue-heavy than the others which probably hurts its chances. I’ve already rewritten this section once having flip-flopped between Anora and A Real Pain, but I think A Real Pain had slightly more wit to it, so I think that just about gives it the edge. I’d be very happy to see Anora get it too though.

Best Animated Feature Film

• Flow
• *Inside Out 2
• Memoir of a Snail
• *Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
• *The Wild Robot

Prediction: The Wild Robot

This is quite a tricky one. I’m discounting Memoir of a Snail right away, as it’s had such a limited release that I don’t think it appeared on enough people’s radars to take the win here. At the other end of the scale, Inside Out 2 has had an incredibly successful cinema run and is now the most successful animated film of all time in terms of box office takings, but I think it had such a long release window that the voters seem a little fed up with it – it hasn’t won any of the preceding awards, despite appearing on every list of nominees. One should never discount Pixar films in this category but it does feel like this one’s lost some momentum. Wallace & Gromit won the BAFTA, but I feel fairly confident in saying that will have appealed to the British Academy more than the American one. I’m very pleased to see it get nominated, but I don’t think it will win here.

That leaves Flow, which annoyingly isn’t released in the UK until March 21 so I haven’t been able to see it yet, and The Wild Robot. Flow won the Golden Globe, and (rarely for an animated film) has also been nominated for International Feature Film having been made in Latvia. The Wild Robot also has a couple of technical nods in Sound and Original Score, and won the Critics Choice Award. The industry specialist awards for this category are the Annies, which did give Flow some love (it beat Memoir of a Snail to win Best Independent Feature and Best Writing – Feature), but its top prize went to The Wild Robot, along with all eight of the other categories it was nominated in. Thematically they’re very similar films – both set in a world where humans have been partially or totally wiped out and nature has reclaimed the planet. They are both visually gorgeous. The Wild Robot’s early teaser trailer suggested that it might be relying on visual storytelling – it didn’t in the end, but Flow picked up that baton and ran with it very successfully from what I’ve heard. But The Wild Robot has a cracking voice cast – it’s hard to criticise a film for adding vocals when one of those voices belongs to Matt Berry. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see this go to Flow, which seems to be the more original and interesting of the two in its storytelling and use of animation, but on the basis that The Wild Robot cleaned up so comprehensively at the Annies I think I’m leaning towards that for my prediction. Plus, despite being one of the biggest and best-known names in animation, Dreamworks hasn’t won this award since the very first year that the category was introduced, back in 2001 when it went to Shrek.

International Feature Film

• *I’m Still Here (Brazil)
• The Girl With the Needle (Denmark)
• *Emilia Pérez (France)
• The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
• Flow (Latvia)

Prediction: I’m Still Here (Brazil)

As a general rule, if any of the nominees for International Feature Film have been nominated for Best Picture, they will win International Feature Film. Unusually this year though, there are two films that appear in both lists – Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here. As much as I would love to see it go to Flow, and I think the drama behind the filming of The Seed of the Sacred Fig has earned it a trophy too, I would be very surprised if this goes to any of the nominees not in the running for Best Picture. And at the risk of repeating myself, I think Emilia Pérez has hurt its own chances in many categories this year, although that doesn’t seem to have slowed it down yet – it won the BAFTA, Critics Choice and Golden Globe equivalents. It probably is the favourite going into this weekend on that basis alone. I’m Still Here has won a fair few minor awards, and interestingly everything it’s won is representative of what Emilia Pérez is supposed to champion – the Society of LGBTQ Entertainment Critics and the Latino Entertainment Journalists Association, for example, preferred I’m Still Here to the film about the trans Mexican woman. It’s almost as though the people who want to look like they support representation are voting for Emilia Pérez while the people it purports to represent don’t feel that it represents them very well. If that’s the case then I won’t be surprised if the Academy go for Emilia Pérez too. But all of that aside, I do think I’m Still Here is the better film. It drew me in and stuck with me a lot longer than Emilia Pérez. It also felt like a much more authentic portrayal of the history and culture of the country it was set in, which I think is important in this category. Emilia Pérez feels like a European’s impression of what life in Mexico is like (probably because that’s exactly what it is). I have a feeling this will still go to Emilia Pérez, but I’m going with my heart and backing I’m Still Here.

Best Documentary Feature Film

• Black Box Diaries
• No Other Land
• Porcelain War
• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
• Sugarcane

Prediction: Porcelain War

I haven’t seen any of these films, so this one is based purely on what I’ve read online and seen in the trailers. The BAFTAs and the Producers Guild of America gave Best Documentary to Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story, which isn’t nominated here, but the Directors Guild of America gave it to Porcelain War, which also won the Sundance Jury Prize. It follows a group of artists in Ukraine, trying to stay positive and continue seeing the beauty in the world amid the Russian invasion of their home. No Other Land has a similar theme of documenting conflict, this time the Israel-Palestine war, and it has won a ton of awards too – the only reason it wasn’t nominated at the DGA and PGA was that it wasn’t eligible due to a lack of a distributor. But it looks a lot more serious in its presentation – Porcelain War doesn’t shy away from the horror but it wraps it in a much more palatable conceit, which I think will do it some favours, and its reverence for the power of art will resonate with the artists voting for it. Black Box Diaries seems to be a strong contender too, about a Japanese rape victim trying to get her story told despite powerful attempts to cover it up, while Sugarcane focuses on the lasting effects of abuse in a mission school for Native Americans. Both have themes that will be close to the hearts of many Academy voters. But this will probably go to one of the two war movies, and I think I’m falling on the side of Porcelain War.

Cinematography

• *The Brutalist
• *Dune: Part Two
• *Emilia Pérez
• Maria
• *Nosferatu

Prediction: The Brutalist

This is another one where the run-up awards aren’t very helpful. The BAFTA went to The Brutalist and the Critics Choice Award went to Nosferatu, while the American Society of Cinematographers gave it to Maria. I haven’t seen Maria so I can’t comment on that one, but to me the cinematography in The Brutalist and Nosferatu stand out more. The Brutalist has some incredible epic shots – of the architecture capturing the light just right, or the sun setting over an Italian marble quarry for example – while Nosferatu’s muted, almost monochromatic colour palette worked wonders in setting the film’s sinister gothic tone. On style alone I probably would have given it to Nosferatu, but the filmmaking techniques that went into making The Brutalist will likely swing the award in its favour. Cinematographer Lol Crawley shot almost the entire film in VistaVision, an old format that runs the film strip through the camera lengthways (horizontally instead of vertically), allowing for larger film cells that capture more detail. It’s occasionally used for the odd scene in other films nowadays, but this is the first film in some time that’s used it for the whole runtime and it’s been seen as a bit of a revival in Hollywood. For a film as long as The Brutalist, it’s also a hugely impressive undertaking – the cameras are larger and harder to use, and the film runs through it at a less economic pace, meaning it only gets about 5 minutes of footage before the reel has to be replaced. It feels very likely that the Academy will want to reward that effort.

Editing

• *Anora
• *The Brutalist
• *Conclave
• *Emilia Pérez
• *Wicked

Prediction: Anora

This is another one that could very easily go several ways. It’s difficult to base this on previous winners – the BAFTAs gave it to Conclave but again I suspect the British Academy will have enjoyed that a little more than the American one and it has less of a chance here. The Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards don’t reward editing. The American Cinema Editors Awards have been postponed to mid-March due to the California wildfires, so they haven’t announced a winner yet, but there’s a slight clue in the nominations. Like the Globes, they split their top award into Drama and Comedy, and between the two categories Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez and Wicked are all nominated, which suggests this probably won’t go to The Brutalist. Editing-wise, there isn’t much to separate Emilia Pérez and Wicked, which are both musicals and will have been nominated for their big elaborately-choreographed dance numbers. Conclave is a very well put together movie but it moves at a slightly slower pace, whereas Anora varies between different levels of energy when it needs to be chaotic, intimate or melancholy. On that basis I think I’m giving it to that.

Music (Original Score)

• *Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)
• *Volker Bertelmann (Conclave)
• *Clément Ducol & Camille (Emilia Pérez)
• *John Powell & Stephen Schwartz (Wicked)
• *Kris Bowers (The Wild Robot)

Prediction: Daniel Blumberg (The Brutalist)

This feels like a relatively easy one to me. Much as I loved the soundtracks for Conclave and The Wild Robot, the Brutalist soundtrack was on another level. It was the first film in years where the music has stood out to me as one of the highlights of the whole film. Jazzy and chaotic in places, but soaring like John Williams at his peak in others, it made a four hour film about concrete architecture feel like an epic superhero movie. It took the BAFTA award, while the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards both went to Challengers and the Grammy went to Dune: Part Two, neither of which is even nominated here. It’s not a dead cert by any means, but I would be surprised if anything else gets this one.

Music (Original Song)

• *El Mal (Emilia Pérez)
• The Journey (The Six Triple Eight)
• Like a Bird (Sing Sing)
• *Mi Camino (Emilia Pérez)
• Never Too Late (Elton John: Never Too Late)

Prediction: El Mal

Another year, another Oscars ceremony, another nomination for Diane Warren for writing a slightly dull ballad for a film that nobody saw. With what I believe is now her 16th nomination (with the current run now standing at 8 consecutive years) without a single win, The Journey (performed by H.E.R.) is actually one of her better ones, but it’s not breaking any new ground and I’d be surprised if this is the one that finally gives Warren the statuette. Although part of me hopes she does win so that whoever keeps voting to nominate her can move on. Never Too Late and Like A Bird are nice songs too, but the odds are this will go to one of the two nominations from Emilia Pérez. I actually prefer Mi Camino, which is performed by Selena Gomez in a dreamlike sequence that starts out as a drunken karaoke session. That might be because it sounds a lot like something else, although I can’t quite place my finger on what – possibly Song For Guy by Elton John? Which would add insult to injury if that one beats Never Too Late… The favourite though, after winning the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award, is El Mal – a simmering account of the corruption and misdeeds of the Mexican social and political elite performed in a sort of angry rap by Zoe Saldaña. It’s not as pretty as Mi Camino, but it will stick in your head a lot longer.

Sound

• *A Complete Unknown
• *Dune: Part Two
• *Emilia Pérez
• *Wicked
• *The Wild Robot

Prediction: Dune: Part Two

There is a lot of music among these nominees, with Emilia Pérez, Wicked and A Complete Unknown all peppered with musical numbers, many of which were recorded live on set. But Dune seems to be emerging as the favourite, having won the BAFTA and a slew of industry awards including the Association of Motion Picture Sound (AMPS) award and a Motion Picture Sound Editors Golden Reel award for foley (although Emilia Pérez, Wicked and The Wild Robot also won Golden Reels in other categories). The range of sounds that it had to create, from spaceships and mining ships, to sandstorms and sandworms, to the eerie quiet of the Harkonnen homeworld and commanding voices of the Bene Gesserit, is much broader than the other contenders, and it was all edited together perfectly believably. It could go to A Complete Unknown for its concert scenes, but I think Dune is the more likely winner.

Visual Effects

• *Alien: Romulus
• *Better Man
• *Dune: Part Two
• *Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
• *Wicked

Prediction: Dune: Part Two

All of the nominees here rely heavily on CGI, whether it’s the flying monkeys in Wicked, the dancing monkey in Better Man, or the complex society of monkeys in Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes. (Gladiator II also had CGI monkeys, but for some reason wasn’t nominated here…) Dune: Part Two made the best use of the medium though, despite the lack of monkeys. The desert planet of Arrakis, populated with gigantic sci-fi mining ships and skyscraper-sized worms, felt fully realised and completely believable. The technology and artistic skill required just to get the minor details right, like making the sand move in the right way when a sandworm is tunnelling under it, is incredible. The fact that it was nominated for Best Picture stands it in good stead here – Wicked was too, but I think Dune’s nomination owed a lot more to the VFX.

Production Design

• *The Brutalist
• *Conclave
• *Dune: Part Two
• *Nosferatu
• *Wicked

Prediction: Wicked

I’m going to discount Conclave as most of the production design work was sort of done for them by centuries of tradition at the Vatican, but the other four would be worthy winners. The Brutalist is a film all about architecture, and the set designers did an amazing job of building the art that Adrien Brody’s character was creating. Dune: Part Two had even more world building than the first entry, showing us more of the Fremen culture as well as introducing us to the Harkonnen planet of Giedi Prime with its weird inky black fireworks. Nosferatu had Count Orlock stalking through ancient crumbling castles and gothic villages. But I think this will go to Wicked, which recreated the Emerald City of a cinematic classic and expanded on that world, unashamedly filling it with bright colours and shiny veneers. Every frame is filled with details popping out of the screen to vie for your attention, but somehow it all works together to form a cohesive whole. It’s also the favourite coming into the ceremony, having won the BAFTA and the Critics Choice Award.

Costume Design

• *A Complete Unknown
• *Conclave
• *Gladiator II
• *Nosferatu
• *Wicked

Prediction: Wicked

Period dramas often do well in the Costume Design category, so the 60s outfits of A Complete Unknown and the togas and armour of Gladiator II could well be recognised, as could the gothic 1830s dresses and capes in Nosferatu and the billowing cardinal robes of Conclave. But when it comes to billowing robes, nothing this year beats Elphaba as she was belting out the big notes from her broomstick at the end of Wicked. It’s the iconic witch costume – you just can’t beat a good pointy black hat. The fantastical outfits are every bit as integral to the world-building here as the production design is, and Glinda’s outfits in particular stand out from the crowd. Again, this won the BAFTA and the Critics Choice Award so I would be very surprised if it doesn’t net another win here.

Makeup and Hairstyling

• A Different Man
• *Emilia Pérez
• *Nosferatu
• *The Substance
• *Wicked

Prediction: The Substance

This could go to Wicked too – between Elphaba’s green skin and Glinda’s immaculate locks it would certainly be a deserving winner. But this time I’m going for The Substance. Margaret Qualley’s character is carefully designed to look as enviably perfect as possible, and her makeup and hair is a big part of that effect. But the real reason this is going to win is Demi Moore, whose appearance becomes more and more haggard, scarred and horrific as the film goes on and Qualley’s Sue steals her youth and vigour. Plus of course there’s the final act, which I won’t describe in detail as I don’t want to spoil it, but there are some pretty impressive prosthetics going on and that has to stand it in good stead too. And whoever managed to make Dennis Quaid look quite so grotesque deserves an award.

Live Action Short Film

• A Lien
• *Anuja
• *I’m Not a Robot
• The Last Ranger
• *The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Prediction: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

I’ve been able to watch three of the live action shorts this year – Anuja (which is on Netflix) about a young maths prodigy in India torn between getting an education and helping her sister, and I’m Not a Robot (which you can watch online by clicking the link above) about a woman who discovers she might be a robot when she fails a Captcha test. From what I’ve read online though, it sounds like the clear favourite, after winning the Palm d’Or for Best Short Film at Cannes, is The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent – about the one man on a passenger train in Bosnia & Herzegovina who was willing to stand up to a paramilitary group engaged in ethnic cleansing operation during the Štrpci massacre in 1993. It’s tense and affecting, and the fact that it’s based on a true story makes it all the more chilling. You can watch it in full on Youtube at the link above.

Animated Short Film

• Beautiful Men
• In the Shadow of the Cypress
• Magic Candies
• Wander to Wonder
• Yuck!

Prediction: Wander to Wonder

I can normally find at least one or two of the Animated Short nominees on the internet, but this year I’ve only managed to track down their trailers. As far as I can tell, Beautiful Men is about some naked bald guys looking for a hair transplant, In The Shadow of the Cypress is about a depressed captain and his daughter, Yuck! is about kids being disgusted at old people with glowing lip gloss kissing each other, and Magic Candies is about a kid being given some sweets that he’s told are magic and suddenly finding that the furniture and his pets are talking to him (I’m still not sure if it realises how dodgy that sounds). They all look sweet and heartfelt and I’m sure the full films are very entertaining. But by far the most interesting sounding one is Wander to Wonder, about a trio of stop motion characters in a kids’ TV show who, when their creator/animator abandons them, carry on broadcasting their own strange little shows asking the viewers to help them and send food. It looks surreal and strange in the best possible way and more than any of the others it makes me wish I could watch the whole thing. Plus it won the BAFTA and the Annie award, so it seems to be the favourite. I will add though that, if Wander to Wonder doesn’t win, my money would be on In The Shadow of the Cypress, which has some nicely stylised artwork and looks like it will have the most uplifting story arc (if only because it starts from the lowest point).

Documentary Short

• Death By Numbers
• I Am Ready, Warden
• *Incident
• *Instruments of a Beating Heart
• *The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Prediction: Instruments of a Beating Heart

I have a feeling this might go to Incident, but I never get all the shorts right so screw it, I’m going for the one I enjoyed the most. I’ve been able to watch three of these – two are online (follow the links above) and The Only Girl in the Orchestra is on Netflix. That film follows double bassist Orin O’Brien, the first woman in the New York Philharmonic Orchestra, as she looks back on her career and prepares for her retirement. It’s a fascinating story about a remarkable and surprisingly humble woman, but it doesn’t feel quite as urgent or important as some of the other entries. Incident uses security camera and police bodycam footage to recount the shooting, by police, of a black barber on the streets of Chicago in 2018. As a documentary, it’s shockingly straightforward in its storytelling – it presents the facts in real-time footage with no voiceover and simple, matter-of-fact captions explaining who’s who and what they’re saying. And yet it’s completely clear in its messaging about police brutality, racism and the lack of justice that follows a murder like this. Be warned if you do click the link: the footage doesn’t cut away when the man gets shot – it’s not a pleasant watch. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that messaging strikes a chord with voters, especially given the parallels with the ICE raids going on in Chicago at the moment. My favourite entry (of those I’ve seen) though is Instruments of a Beating Heart, which follows a class of Japanese students as they start second grade, auditioning for an orchestral rendition of Ode To Joy to welcome the new batch of first-graders. That might sound a bit schmaltzy (and they are very sweet kids), but it’s also a fascinating insight into the differences between Western and Japanese teaching methods. There’s a scene in the middle that plays out like Whiplash, if Neimann was a tiny Japanese schoolgirl. I’ve never rooted so strongly for a child to hit a cymbal. It might not be as hard-hitting as Incident, but it’s a lot more entertaining and I hope the Academy enjoy it enough for the win.